May 2016 would be a Philippine Presidential election year and the political fireworks already started in 2015. Survey leader (for many years) Vice President Binay was overtaken by Senator Grace Poe as the Liberal Party demolition job on the former Makati Mayor started to take its toll. 2013 Senatorial elections topnotcher Grace Poe held on to the survey lead until the threat and actual DISQUALIFICATION by the Commission on Elections made soft Poe supporters leave her in droves. She now brings her case to the Supreme Court for final disposition of her candidacy status. Reluctant candidate Davao City Mayor Rodrigo then took the limelight as he SUBSTITUTED Martin Dino for a Presidential run. The last survey for the year showed the resurgent Vice President grab the pole position again.
Throughout all this jockeying for the top position, Liberal Party and Aquino Administration standard bearer former Senator Mar Roxas languished at the LAST (Senator Miriam being classified as a non-candidate, no chance to win, that is) position.
2016 prediction: Senator Grace Poe may or may not be DISQUALIFIED by the Supreme Court and her name MAY be included in the ballot but fighting a DEFENSIVE GAME will NOT make her win. The UNCERTAINTY of the status of her candidacy would make her supporters easy picking for the other candidates on the argument that a vote for her could be a WASTED VOTE because a vote for her would end up NOT COUNTED if the Supreme Court rules to DISQUALIFY her AFTER the ballots are printed with her name on them. There is also the possibility that she may be DISQUALIFIED AFTER she wins the elections although this is highly unlikely for the Supreme Court may invoke the VOX POPULI, VOX DEI (literally, the voice of the people is the voice of God) principle and grant her the Presidency because the sovereign people have already spoken. Assuming the Supreme Court allows her to win the Presidency, we can almost be sure that DISQUALIFICATION cases would be filed against her AFTER she becomes President (in which the new Vice President would then assume her office if she is DISQUALIFIED).
January 2016 surveys prediction: Binay and/or Duterte for first (there will be a number of surveys so one candidate can top one survey while his/her opponent can top another survey). Poe will be in third position and NOT be able to take the lead again up to election time even if she is a QUALIFIED CANDIDATE
. In spite of the legal difficulties of Senator Grace Poe and unless she is DISQUALIFIED with FINALITY by the Supreme Court, Mar Roxas would still be FOURTH but within striking distance of third placer Poe. It goes without saying that Mar Roxas would grab SOLO THIRD position if Senator Grace is DISQUALIFIED with FINALITY by the SUPREME COURT. For the sake of reducing the UNCERTAINTY imposed on the Filipino electorate, we are hoping that the Supreme Court will act with URGENCY on the Poe DISQUALIFICATION case so as to spare us the agony of not knowing whether she is a candidate or not.