BINAY, POE, DUTERTE ‘STATISTICALLY TIED’
SWS: No clear winner yet in presidential race
February 15, 2016
The presidential race remains to be anybody’s ball game even as Vice President Jejomar Binay continues to lead in the latest Social Weather Station (SWS) pre-election survey.
SWS director Leo Laroza said it was still too early to determine who will win as president in the May 9 elections based on the results of the pollster’s latest survey, conducted from February 5 to 7.
The poll, which had 1,200 respondents, showed Binay’s rating at 29 percent, followed by Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and Senator Grace Poe with 24 percent, admnistration standard bearer Manuel “Mar” Roxas II with 18 percent, and Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago with 4 percent.
In an interview aired on GMA News TV’s “News to Go” Monday, Laroza noted that Binay is in fact statistically tied with Duterte and Poe because the survey’s sampling error margins were at ±3 points.
“Sa sitwasyon na ito, ang 29 percent at 24 percent ay masasabi nating statistically tied dahil ang error margin ay ±3 percent, means the 29 percent can be as low as 26 percent, habang yung 24 percent can be as high as 27 percent,” he explained.
“Dahil sa overlap na ‘yun, masasabi nating hindi significant ang agwat ng 29 percent sa 24 percent,” Laroza added.
Asked if the latest survey results mean there is still no clear winner yet in the presidential contest, the SWS official answered in the affirmative.
Laroza recalled that in the 2010 elections, survey ratings of candidates for top national positions continued to shift even a few weeks before the actual polling date.
“Kung pagbabasehan natin ang mga ranking ngayon, talagang hindi pa natin masasabi kung ano ang kalalabasan [ng halalan]. Noong 2010 elections, nagaganap ang pabagubago sa ranking ay talagang nagaganap kahit malapit na tayo sa araw ng eleksyon,” he said.
Laroza, meanwhile, said the death of OFW Family Club party-list Rep. Roy Señeres last February 8 was not seen to have an impact on the ranking of the remaining five presidential candidates because he was not picked by any of the survey respondents.
Señeres filed his certificate of candidacy for president last October but had his representatives withdraw it on his behalf earlier this month, citing health reasons. He died a day before the official campaign season kicked off on February 9. —Xianne Arcangel, GMA News
2016 Presidential survey front-runner Vice President Jejomar Binay. In a second place tie are Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and Senator Grace Poe. All three are is a statistical tie. DILG Secretary Mar Roxas is alone in fourth position.