Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte would be the next Philippine President, winning by 4 million votes, as predicted by Google, Facebook and 7 – 11 convenience stores.
It is all over but the counting. Duterte will get 38% of the total votes cast with 14 million votes. Grace Poe will settle for second with 10 million votes representing 27%. Vice President Binay will get 6 million votes representing 17% while perpetual poll survey tail-ender Mar Roxas will get 5 million votes and 15%.
The results would put traditional survey firms to shame since they predict on the basis of small sample sizes (1,200 or 1,800 or 2,400 or 4,000 or 5,200) and justifying their results because of their use of scientific methods. However, in the age of the Internet and social media, resorting to tiny sample sizes would inevitably lead to less than accurate predictions. The way to go should be to compile data the way Google, Facebook and, in a less precise way, 7 – 11, generate huge numbers. The so-called advantage of the traditional polling is its methodology of choosing respondents but this system falls flat on its face due to extremely small sample sizes (in the few thousands). Gathering data from MILLIONS of people will obviously increase the ACCURACY of the projected election results. None of the STUPID plus or minus 2% blah blah which effectively puts survey results in the STATISTICAL TIE territory whenever candidates are bunched up and within striking distance of each other. When MILLIONS of respondents are polled, the plus or minus margin of error is reduced to an INSIGNIFICANT number, thus there will be no epidemic of STATISTICAL TIES which is our common fare (until Duterte pulled away).
Actually, we should attribute more intelligence to our candidates. Grace Poe said “habang may buhay, may pagasa” (there is hope as long as one is still alive). That comment does not exude a great chance at victory. At its best, it means that she knows that she is behind and must work double time to catch up. VP Binay said he would win by 4 million votes. Obviously he has access to a wider network of troops on the ground who are in a better position to assess the national pulse. In truth, he is in the know that the 2016 Presidential election WINNER would win by 4 MILLION votes. He just twisted the story a little bit to make it appear as if HE would be the winner when DEEP IN HIS HEART, he already knows that VICTORY will not be his. He deliberately presented a different winner (himself) so as not to DEMORALIZE his supporters. Conceding DEFEAT at this early stage would PANIC his campaign since it would be everyone to himself (jumping ship time, junking season). Mar Roxas, on the other hand, was already THANKING his supporters at Club Filipino. Detractors said it was a LOYALTY CHECK but it looked more like a LAST HURRAH, giving it the good old Ateneo High School ONE BIG FIGHT ( Win or lose, this the school we choose). It was Mar’s way of saying that there is still (political) life after two consecutive DEFEATS (for VP in 2010 and an impending one for President in 2016). In a public statement, Presidential candidate Mar Roxas stated that he would be the Flavor of the Month in May 2016 (meaning he will FINALLY win, not just a survey but the election) which could mean he is banking on a MIRACLE (of the Hocus PCOS type?) or related DIVINE INTERVENTION of the Deus ex machina type (this phrase was taken up in his Ateneo High School Second Year English Literature class). In other words, Mar Roxas insiders already know the score which is why they are holding back the release of funds. Anyway, less than 20 days before the elections, this blog is already CALLING the LANDSLIDE winner and that is Davao City Mayor Duterte. CHANGE IS COMING. Mabuhay ang Pilipinas!
#Duterte2016 #MarRoxas #GracePoe #JojoBinay #Halalan2016 #PhilippineElections2016