Poe 26% (down from 28%), Duterte 25% (up from 24%), Binay 22% (up from 21%) and Roxas 20% (unchanged). Pulse Asia Survey commissioned by ABS-CBN. Conducted Mar 8 – 13, 2016. This survey was done AFTER the Supreme Court decision that voted favorably for Grace Poe to run after her natural born citizenship status and 10 year mandatory residency were questioned. Poe supporters were PROJECTING an estimated 10% UPWARD jump which did NOT materialize. Instead of Poe gaining percentage points, her POPULARITY is DECLINING (based on poll surveys) while Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President Binay are gaining. These results are still too close to call with at least three candidates (Poe, Duterte and Binay) in a position to achieve victory. Mar Roxas, always at the tail end, is still hopeful that being the Aquino Administration candidate has a big advantage that coul
d propel him to the Palace but HISTORY is not kind to administration candidates (Mitra in 1992 although Cory Aquino shifted to Ramos at the last minute, De Venecia in 1998 and Teodoro in 2010).
POE LOSING POINTS, DUTERTE NOW IN 2ND AFTER SIGNIFICANT GAIN
Mon, March 7, 2016
Latest survey by The Standard conducted from February 24 to March 1 showed Sen. Grace Poe remains to be the frontrunner of the presidential race with 26 percent— but three points down from 29 percent in January.
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte comes next with 24 percent, gaining most with four percentage points.
With a ±1.8 percent margin of error, however, Poe, Duterte, and Vice President Jejomar Binay with 23 percent are statistically tied for first place.
Liberal Party (LP) standard bearer Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, in fourth place, technically ends up second with 22 percent. While, Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago lags far behind from the other presidential candidates with two percent.
“With Poe getting slight declines in vote share, Duterte gaining some points, and Binay and Roxas maintaining their vote support—the presidential race has become tighter,” said Junie Laylo, The Standard’s resident pollster.
In the National Capital Region (NCR), Poe and Binay took the lead with 28 percent in the same survey. With a higher margin of error of ±6 percent in Metro Manila, Duterte is statistically tied with them at 23 percent.
The Standard Poll also revealed that across other major geographic areas, Poe and Binay are tied in North/Central Luzon with 34 percent and 33 percent respectively, with a margin of error of ±4 percent.
It also said that the two presidential candidates were tied in South Luzon/Bicol with Poe getting 32 percent and Binay with 27 percent.
According to the survey, Visayas continued to be Roxas’ bailiwick with 36 percent, while Duterte was the top choice of voters in Mindanao with a very high 49 percent.
By economic class, Poe lost her lead to Duterte among voters from Class A, B, and C. Poe’s ratings dropped from 30 percent in January to 21 percent in the latest survey, while Duterte’s increased from 27 percent in January to 30 percent.
“The campaign effect is kicking in and the race is expected to be very fluid given the upcoming debates and increased sorties of candidates,” Laylo added.
According to The Standard, the survey had 3,000 registered voters with biometrics as respondents, from 79 provinces across the country and 17 cities in NCR.