The 2016 Presidential survey saw Senator Grace Poe (30%) take the lead for the first time as Vice President Binay (22%) slid to second place. Vice President Binay’s popularity ratings went down on the basis of corruption charges associated with the construction of city buildings when he was still Makati mayor. Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (15%) is in third place while DILG Secretary Mar Roxas (10%) is tied with former President, now Manila mayor, Joseph Estrada (10%) for fourth and fifth places. Only Vice President Binay has formally announced his plans to run for President in 2016. The four others are either coy or in a yes/no/maybe mode. President Aquino is expected to announce his endorsement after his July State of the Nation address. The Administration alliance is in a quandary as to the fielding of the presumptive Liberal Party standard bearer in the person of former Senator Mar Roxas. Secretary Mar at 10% is running at a pace that is only 33% that of Senator Poe and only 45% of that of Vice President Binay. Still, while waiting for the Presidential anointment
, the Roxas camp can only wait. Should President Aquino choose Senator Poe over Secretary Roxas, the administration candidate would have a far better chance of beating the Vice President since Senator Poe is already leading the survey. A P-Noy endorsement of Secretary Mar Roxas would be more problematic since Secretary Roxas has not captured the hearts of the Filipino electorate (at least up this point prior to the May 2016 elections) and he may lose again to Vice President Binay. Then Senator Mar Roxas lost to then Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay in the 2010 elections for vice-president. The administration alliance is headed for a double whammy if they can not prevail upon Senator Poe to step down to the Vice Presidency and she instead runs against both Binay and Roxas. The administration alliance and the Liberal Party are both expected to fracture and fragment in the rush to shift loyalties to the candidate (Poe) with a greater chance of victory and the Liberal Party die-hards sticking with Secretary Roxas whatever the outcome.